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Inflation not a big concern for China this year
www.chinanews.cn 2005-02-22 14:48:34
Chinanews, Beijing, Feb. 21 (By Liu Changzhong) - According to an expert
report, the international oil price will fall and remain steady in 2005
and the Chinese economy will continue to stay in an expansionary mode and
will not see much structural changes. As a result, inflation will
probably not occur in China this year. The Chinese economy is currently a
surplus economy that features more supply than demand except in the
energy field that is complicated by many geopolitical factors. The
inflation rate this year is estimated at about 3%, slightly lower than
2004's 3.9%.
The international economic research centre of the school of economics
under the Beijing Industry and Commerce University (BICU) and the
economic institute of Nankai University recently put out a report on the
2004 to 2005 development prospects of the national economy. The report
points to the abundant labor and capital supply and increasing market
demand as the stabilizing forces for the Chinese economy. The overall
living standard in China is still low, leaving much of the demand for
housing and automobiles unmet. An annual natural population growth of
7,700,000 people is also constantly creating new consumption demand.
Moreover, demand for exports continues to expand.
According to the report, the Chinese economy is in a rapid
industrialization and internationalization phase. The enormous growth
momentum brought by the industrialization and the open economic structure
will not drastically slow down, barring catastrophic events such as wars.
The lagging effects from the large-scale investment boom in 2003 and 2004
will be felt and the current economic growth is unlikely to slow down.
The report also pointed out that China's employment situation would still
be stern in 2005. The current economic structure of the Chinese economy
is not expected to undergo dramatic changes, neither are the employment
structure and employment scale. In this context, also considering the
lagging effect of the macroeconomic regulations and control, investment
growth will slow down.
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